Two big forecasts for the 2026 holiday season are now public, and they paint a picture of shoppers who are still spending but doing more of it on their phones. One comes from the National Retail Federation and covers all retail; the other comes from Adobe and covers online sales only.
In this article, we will explore what each forecast says, why the two cannot be added together, how discounts and payment tools may shape your cart, and how to plan your own buying.
Two Forecasts Measuring Two Different Things
Before comparing any numbers, it helps to be clear about what each organization is counting. The National Retail Federation, a retail trade group, publishes a forecast for total retail sales in the holiday season, which it defines as November 1 through December 31. That figure covers purchases in stores and online alike. Adobe, a software company that tracks web transactions, publishes a forecast for online spending in the United States across the same two months.
Because the NRF number includes everything and Adobe’s includes only one channel, the two should not be added, subtracted, or treated as rival predictions of the same quantity. A reader who sees a dollar figure of about $1.013 trillion from one source and $275.1 billion from the other might be tempted to say online sales are roughly a quarter of the total. The two sources define their scopes differently, so that quick division would be shaky at best. Treat them as two lenses on one season.
Forecasts Are Not Results
Both documents are forecasts. They were issued weeks before the season begins, based on each organization’s models, past patterns, and survey or transaction data. Real shoppers, the weather, supply problems, and a thousand small events can push the final tally above or below a forecast. The best way to use them is as a sense of direction and scale, not as a promise.
Who Is Behind Each Number
The NRF is a trade association for retailers, so its forecast is a view of the whole retail picture, stores and websites together. Adobe is a software company, and its forecast narrows the lens to online sales, with extra detail on specific days, devices, and categories. Neither approach is better in every way. The wide lens helps you judge the season’s overall strength, while the narrow lens helps you plan around particular days and payment habits. Reading both gives a more rounded sense of the season than reading either alone, as long as you keep their scopes separate and avoid mixing their dollar figures.
Where the Dates Fall
The season the NRF counts starts on November 1, and Adobe uses the same window. Thanksgiving falls on Thursday, November 26 this year, Black Friday follows on November 27, and Cyber Monday lands on November 30, a date Adobe names in its outlook. That calendar gives shoppers a slightly late Cyber Monday, which pushes some of the traditional deal rush into the final days of the month, right before December begins.
The NRF Outlook for November and December
In a press release titled “NRF forecasts 2026 holiday sales growth as consumers remain resilient,” dated October 15, 2026, the trade group projected that November and December retail sales will grow 4.2 percent over 2025. That would bring the total to about $1.013 trillion. For comparison, the same release says last year’s holiday sales rose 3.1 percent over 2024 and totaled $972 billion.
The step up from a 3.1 percent gain to a projected 4.2 percent gain is the real story in the NRF numbers. A faster growth rate suggests the group expects households to spend with somewhat more confidence this season than they did a year ago, though a forecast does not say what is driving each household’s decision. The headline word in the release is resilient, which signals the group’s view that shoppers have kept spending despite whatever pressures they face.
What a Growth Rate Does and Does Not Tell You
Growth of 4.2 percent is a statement about total dollars. It does not say how many items shoppers will buy, since higher prices can raise the dollar total without raising the number of products leaving the shelves. A shopper who buys the same gifts as last year but pays more for them contributes to growth without buying more. So when you see a strong forecast, keep in mind that it does not automatically mean a busier mall or a bigger pile of packages.
How to Compare This Year With Last
The cleanest comparison in the NRF release is its own: a projected 4.2 percent rise this year against the 3.1 percent rise last year, with last year’s total at $972 billion. Because both figures come from the same organization and the same definition of the season, the comparison is fair. Be careful about placing a different organization’s online number beside it, since that mixes scopes and can produce conclusions neither source supports.
What a Total of $1.013 Trillion Represents
The total is the sum of a huge number of purchases across many kinds of stores and websites over sixty-one days. It makes sense as a measure of the overall retail economy at a time of year when gift-giving, travel and entertaining lift spending. It does not tell you how any single retailer will do, and it says nothing about which categories will win. For that you have to look at other data, such as the category figures Adobe publishes for online shopping.
Adobe’s Online Forecast in Detail
Adobe’s press release, issued on September 28, 2026, projects that online holiday sales in the United States, again measured from November 1 through December 31, will reach a record $275.1 billion, up 6.7 percent. The company also looked at specific high-traffic days, and the numbers show where online shopping tends to concentrate.
Cyber Week and the Big Days
Adobe defines Cyber Week as the stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. It forecasts $47.5 billion in online spending for that window, up 7.4 percent, which is 17.3 percent of the season total. In other words, roughly one dollar in six of the online holiday total is expected to land in just five days.
The individual days break down as follows. Thanksgiving Day is forecast at $6.9 billion, up 8.5 percent. Black Friday is forecast at $12.9 billion, up 9.2 percent. Cyber Monday, on November 30, is forecast at $15.1 billion, up 6.2 percent. Cyber Monday is the largest single day, but Black Friday is expected to show the fastest growth of the three. The table below collects these figures.
| Day or window (Adobe forecast) | Online spending | Growth |
| Full season, November 1 to December 31 | $275.1 billion | 6.7% |
| Cyber Week, Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday | $47.5 billion | 7.4% |
| Thanksgiving Day | $6.9 billion | 8.5% |
| Black Friday | $12.9 billion | 9.2% |
| Cyber Monday, November 30 | $15.1 billion | 6.2% |
The Phone in Your Pocket
Adobe expects mobile devices to account for 57.4 percent of online spending over the season, compared with 56.4 percent in 2025. On Thanksgiving Day, the share is expected to hit a record 63 percent. Many shoppers browse and buy between courses, on the couch or in line, and the data reflect how much of the holiday run now happens away from a desktop computer.
For consumers, this has a practical meaning: a retailer’s mobile site or app is, for a majority of online dollars, the real storefront. Slow checkout pages, awkward sign-ins and tiny buttons cost sales, and shoppers who prefer a large screen may find a better view of their cart on a tablet or computer before paying.
Reading the Cyber Week Share
The 17.3 percent share for Cyber Week deserves a second look. It means that five days carry a large part of the online total, so a delivery delay, a website outage, or a sold-out item during that window hits harder than the same problem would in mid-December. Shoppers who place orders in those days should expect busy carriers and set a mental buffer for arrival dates, especially for gifts with a fixed deadline.
What Came Before the Season
Adobe also reported on the lead-in. October online spending was put at $95.8 billion, up 8 percent. The October Prime Day event, as Adobe describes it, reached $9.9 billion, up 9.2 percent. These earlier figures show that a portion of holiday buying now starts before November arrives, which may leave a few households with a smaller remaining gift list when the headline sales begin.
Discounts Across the Season
Adobe’s outlook includes expectations for how deep discounts will run off the listed price. The pattern is not a flat line. Discounts are expected to reach up to 14 percent in early November, climb to up to 21 percent just before Thanksgiving, peak at up to 30 percent during Cyber Week, and settle at 10 to 15 percent in December.
The words up to matter. They describe the best discounts in a given window, not the average across all products. Plenty of items will sell for less than the headline number, and many will not be reduced at all. Still, the shape of the curve is useful, because it tells you that waiting from early November to Cyber Week may unlock better prices, while December may offer a modest but steadier level of markdowns.
| Window | Expected discount off listed price (up to) |
| Early November | 14% |
| Just before Thanksgiving | 21% |
| Cyber Week peak | 30% |
| December | 10% to 15% |
Which Categories Get the Deepest Cuts
Adobe also gave peak discount levels by category. Electronics lead at 30 percent, followed by toys at 29 percent. Televisions, computers, and apparel each reach 23 percent. Sporting goods come in at 19 percent, and appliances and furniture at 18 percent each. This tells you that if you plan to buy a gadget or a toy, the big sale days can matter a great deal, while furniture and appliance shoppers may see smaller gaps between regular and sale prices.
A sensible reading is that categories with the steepest cuts are also the ones where retailers expect the heaviest competition. If you know exactly which model you want, those are the categories where tracking prices before the sales begin can pay off, because it lets you recognize a real bargain from a marked-up list price.
Timing by Category in Practice
Putting the windows and the categories together suggests a rough playbook. A television or computer buyer who has a model in mind might watch prices through early November and decide whether to buy before Thanksgiving, when Adobe expects up to 21 percent off, or hold for Cyber Week. A buyer of clothing might split the difference, buying winter basics when markdowns are decent and saving the rest for the peak. None of this is a guarantee, because retailers set their own prices and stock runs out.
The Trap of the Inflated List Price
A discount is only as good as the starting price. Some listings raise the regular price shortly before a sale to make a cut look larger. A price history, a comparison across a few stores, or simply a note of what an item cost in October can reveal whether a sale is meaningful. This is general advice rather than a claim about any seller, but it is a habit that tends to protect budgets in every year.
Buy Now, Pay Later at the Checkout
Adobe forecasts that spending through buy now, pay later services will reach $21.3 billion in November and December, up 6.6 percent. The figure for Cyber Monday is $1.09 billion, and for Black Friday it is $807 million. Adobe also says 82 percent of that spending happens on mobile devices.
Buy now, pay later lets a shopper split a purchase into several smaller payments, often with little or no interest if payments are made on time. For some households, that smooths out a bumpy month. For others, it becomes a way to stack several small obligations that arrive just as bills pile up in January. The convenience is real, and so is the risk of losing track.
Questions to Ask Before Choosing Installments
Check whether the plan charges interest, and if so, at what rate. Find out what happens when a payment is missed, including late fees and any effect on your credit file, since reporting practices differ between providers and may change. Look at how returns are handled, because a refund can take time to flow back and the installment schedule may keep running while you wait.
Returns and Refunds With Installments
Returns create their own wrinkle when you pay in installments. If you send an item back after making the first payment, the provider and the retailer must both process the change, and the timing of each can differ. Keep proof of the return, such as a drop-off receipt or tracking number, and check your payment schedule until the adjustment shows up. If something looks wrong, contact the provider promptly and keep a record of the conversation.
A Simple Budget Check
Add up all your outstanding installment plans, plus any credit card payments, and compare the monthly total with your income. If the combined number would leave little room after rent, utilities and groceries, the plan is probably a stretch. A good rule is to treat installment purchases as real debt, because that is what they are, even when the marketing language makes them feel like something lighter. For personal advice, a nonprofit credit counselor or a financial professional can look at your situation.
AI Referrals and the Changing Path to Purchase
One of the more striking figures in Adobe’s outlook concerns traffic to retail websites that arrives from artificial intelligence sources. Adobe says this traffic is up 130 percent year over year. By day, Thanksgiving is up 159 percent, Black Friday up 95 percent, and Cyber Monday up 88 percent.
Growth rates depend on the starting level, which is not given here, so they do not by themselves mean AI sources are about to account for most visits. The figures do suggest that a growing group of shoppers uses AI tools to research gifts, compare products or find sales before clicking through to a retailer. Adobe does not say how many sales these visits produce in the figures reported here, so be careful about reading too much into them.
Using an Assistant to Shop Wisely
If you use an AI tool for gift ideas, treat its suggestions as a starting list rather than a verdict. Prices, stock and shipping times change quickly, and a tool may not have the latest listing. Verify the price on the retailer’s own page, check the return policy, and be cautious with any recommendation that pushes you toward an unfamiliar site. That caution applies to any recommendation, whether it comes from a person, an ad or software.
What Retailers May Do With the Shift
Merchants are likely to adjust how their product pages are written, with clearer descriptions and specifications, so that automated tools can read them accurately. For shoppers, the benefit may be better information at the point of decision. The downside is that more of the early research may happen out of sight, with less chance to notice a competing offer. Stay curious, and keep a few trusted comparison sources in your rotation.
Reading Forecasts With Caution
It is worth asking what a forecast can responsibly do for an ordinary shopper. It can signal the likely intensity of the season, which tells you whether to expect crowds, delivery delays, or sold-out items. It can highlight timing, such as the Cyber Week peak. It cannot tell you what your favorite store will charge, whether a particular product will be in stock, or how your household will fare.
Forecasts also tend to be revised. An organization may update its numbers as the season approaches or after it ends, and the final tally can differ from the projection. Keep that in mind when reading a news story that treats a forecast like a result. A phrase like expected to reach is a prediction. A phrase like reached is a report, and it will only appear after the season closes.
Why Growth Numbers Can Mislead
A growth rate compares one period with another, so it depends heavily on what was spent a year earlier. A record dollar total might simply reflect higher prices across the economy. When reading the NRF and Adobe figures, remember that dollars are not units, and that two different organizations can describe the same shopping behavior using different measures.
When a Deal Expires
Many promotions carry a countdown clock designed to create urgency. A real deadline is fine, but an artificial one pushes people to buy before they have compared options. If a sale ends at midnight and you are unsure, remember that the Cyber Week peak runs across several days and that similar discounts often return. Waiting an hour to think costs little, and it prevents many regretted purchases.
Watching Your Own Spending
The numbers are about the whole country, not your wallet. The most useful forecast for you is the one you make yourself, listing the people on your gift list, setting a limit for each and adding a small buffer for the unexpected. If the national mood is optimistic but your budget is tight, there is no obligation to match it.
Final Thoughts: A Practical Plan for Holiday Buying
Start by deciding what you will buy before you see the deals. Write down the gifts you need, the stores or sites you trust, and a limit for the total. This makes it easier to ignore promotions that tempt you toward things you did not plan to buy, which is where much holiday overspending begins.
Next, use the discount timeline. If an item is in a category with deep cuts, such as electronics or toys, note its price in October or early November and set an alert if the retailer offers one. Plan to buy during Cyber Week if the price drops close to your target, but do not wait if the item is a hard-to-find gift that may sell out. For furniture and appliances, where Adobe expects smaller peak cuts, there may be less reason to wait for a particular day.
Third, think about your payment method. A credit card with strong purchase protections or a debit card with a fixed limit can each be reasonable, as long as you can pay without carrying a balance. If you choose installments, read the terms, write down the due dates, and count the plan against your January budget. Never open several plans at the same time without a clear schedule for repayment.
A word on gift cards and shared lists: if you are buying for several people, a simple spreadsheet or note listing the recipient, budget, chosen item, store, price paid, and order status will save you from double purchases. It also makes returns easier, since you will know where each item came from.
Finally, protect the delivery side of the season. Order earlier than you think you need to, keep tracking numbers, and check the return window before you buy. Save receipts and screenshots until the return period ends. Take care with links in unexpected messages claiming to track a package or offer a deal, since scams rise when shoppers are busy. Go straight to the retailer’s own app or website instead.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How Much Will Americans Spend Online During the 2026 Holiday Season?
Adobe forecasts a record $275.1 billion in US online holiday sales from November 1 through December 31, up 6.7 percent. That is a forecast, and the final result may differ. It covers online sales only, not store purchases.
2. How Big Is the NRF Holiday Sales Forecast for 2026?
The National Retail Federation forecasts that November and December retail sales will grow 4.2 percent over 2025, reaching about $1.013 trillion. Last year’s holiday sales rose 3.1 percent to $972 billion, according to the same release. The forecast covers both in-store and online sales.
3. When Is Cyber Monday in 2026?
Cyber Monday falls on November 30, the Monday after Thanksgiving weekend. Adobe forecasts $15.1 billion in online spending that day, up 6.2 percent. It expects it to be the biggest single online day of the season.
4. When Are the Best Holiday Discounts Expected?
Adobe expects the deepest discounts, up to 30 percent off listed prices, at the Cyber Week peak. It expects up to 14 percent in early November, up to 21 percent just before Thanksgiving, and 10 to 15 percent in December. These are best-case figures, not averages.
5. Which Products Get the Biggest Holiday Discounts?
In Adobe’s outlook, electronics reach peak discounts of up to 30 percent and toys up to 29 percent. Televisions, computers, and apparel follow at 23 percent each. Furniture and appliances are expected to be lower, at 18 percent.
6. Is Buy Now, Pay Later a Good Way to Pay for Holiday Gifts?
It depends on the terms and on your budget. Adobe forecasts $21.3 billion in such spending this season, but you should check for interest, late fees, and how returns affect payments. A nonprofit credit counselor can help with personal circumstances.
